Saturday 19th October is an auspicious day for those of us with sporting and political interests. The first two quarter finals of the Rugby World Cup take place and the British Parliament vote on Johnson’s Brexit deal.
Let’s start with the easier one to unravel - the rugby. Ireland will give it a good go against New Zealand but I can’t see them winning. We have a fatal flaw in the centre with Henshaw and Ringrose both lacking game time and, crucially, time together. I’d have started Chris Farrell. Also, I’m not sure if Sexton is good for 80 minutes against New Zealand. They will target him and he will fade out after half time - as he does these days against top opposition. I think our pack will achieve parity of possession but our back row is far less mobile than New Zealand’s and we may suffer accordingly. We will try to keep it tight but I take New Zealand to win by 10 points or so. In Saturday’s other game I think England will have way too much for Australia - too much power in the forwards and plenty of creativity in the backs. England to win by about 15 points. On Sunday everybody will be keen to see how the Japanese speed game works against the South African power game. All romantics will want Japan to repeat the virtuoso display against Scotland but I doubt the pragmatic South Africans will give them the same latitude. So South Africa to win comfortably. The fourth match should be the easiest to predict with a full-strength Wales, guided by the canny Gatland, expected to comfortably defeat a disheveled France. But you just don’t know with France. I’ll go with form and say a comfortable Welsh victory. So head down to Paddy Power and do your accumulator. (Actually don’t bother - he’s only offering 7-4 against these four results.)
The absorbing Brexit saga is also heading for its finale and this game is hard to call. Essentially Johnson needs a substantial number of Labour MPs to defect in order to carry the day. If I were a Labour MP in a shaky constituency I would definitely consider disobeying the Whip. If Johnson fails to get his deal carried there will certainly be a general election and under Corbyn Labour will suffer a heavy defeat. This will be exacerbated by the fact that everyone is heavily sick of Brexit and wants a deal to be made and for it all to go away. They will punish those who thwarted this hope. And the results will mean that the UK will be stuck with Johnson for a full-term with an increased majority. There does not seem to be a general appetite for another referendum - despite what Labour say. It would surely only produce another divisive result and the whole bloody business will drag on per omnia saecula saeculorum. No, the only way out is to pass the bloody bill - so climb on board Labour rebels. Of course Johnson will still want an election based on his triumphant solving of the Brexit riddle and he’ll get his thumping majority anyway. The only crumbs of comfort from all this are that the DUP will be returned to the stagnant pond from which they have emerged and Labour will appoint someone less loathed as leader of the party. So brace yourself for ongoing Boris.
