DAY 1
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle:
Day 1 is, as always, my favourite day with the Supreme to start with and the Champion Hurdle later. Normally I’d have my mind made up weeks ago on the Supreme but this year I’m still pondering it – and the defection of Sir Gerhard has only marginally improved things. I think Dysart Dynamo’s outstanding performance at Punchestown was the best trial but will a front-runner like him be able to hold on in a race like this? The Brits are very keen on Nicky Hnederson’s Constitution Hill who could arrive late and do the business. But I’m not sure he beat much in his races and Henderson’s stable is in stinking form. Both of these are around 5-2 and so not betting propositions for me anyway. I’ve backed Kilcruit each way at 13-2. He has impressive course form (always a major factor) unlike almost all of the others but it’s disturbing that he was beaten at odds on in his first two hurdling ventures. He finally won his maiden by a street and I think it’s unlikely he’ll be outside the first three. Given all Willie Mullins’ options it’s significant that he runs at all. So I’m thinking a Mullins one two to start the Festival.
The Brits are hot for Edwardstown in this and he’s certainly run a few impressive trials. Blue Lord looks the best of Mullins’ runners but he’s hardly a world beater and he and Elliott’s Rivere D’Etel are closely matched. I’m looking for value elsewhere and so will try a few bob each way on Henry De Bromhead’s Magic Daze – currently 14-1.
The Ultima Chase
I usually give these handicap chases a miss but I like the course form of Kim Bailey’s Does he Know and so may be tempted when the lure of being involved overcomes my good sense.
The Champion Hurdle
Of course we all want Honeysuckle to win and it seems likely that she will. The opposition seems sub-standard this year with only Appreciate looking dangerous. He’s not for me at 7-2 without a previous run this year so I’m looking elsewhere. All Gordon Elliott’s horse will be well primed and I fancy Teahupoo at 10-1 should be placed at least. He’s a young up and comer and he hammered Cheltenham winner Quilixios in the Red Mills at Gowran last month.
The Mare’s Hurdle
I think this is one of the trickiest races on the first day and could make cases for four or five. I won on Telemesomething Girl last year in the Mare’s Novice’s but won’t be tempted by the current 7-2. An outsider like Paul Hennessy’s Heaven Help Us (12-1) or my old favourite Indefatigable (25-1) seem better options.
Boodles Juvenile
They tell me Gaelic Warrior is a certainty but who knows with a bunch of 4-y-o handicap hurdlers.
It’s way too complex a puzzle.
National Hunt Challenge Cup
No interest except I’d like to see Rebecca Curtis back amongst the winners with Pats Fancy but I suspect Mullins or Elliott may prevail.
DAY 2
Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle
With all the hype over Sir Gerhard (4/6) you’d imagine this is a foregone conclusion. He’s pretty much the same horse as Kilcruit who was beaten easily by Journey with Me (see image above) at Leopardstown in December. I’d much prefer to back Journey with Me each way at 7-1.
Brown Advisory Novice’s Chase
I didn’t get where I am today backing horses in novice chases. Let’s move on.
Coral Cup
Conversely I do love a handicap hurdle with lots of place offers and open betting. Paul Nichols’ McFabulous is a class above most of these and so carries more weight also. At 16-1 he’s a smashing each way bet unless he gets caught in traffic. Nicky Henderson’s Call Me Lord at 33-1 is dangerously well handicapped and I’ll have a few bob on him also. What a nice dual forecast that would be.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
One to watch. Shishkin and Energumene had a thrilling encounter last time out which may affect them. One’s eye strays to the fallen hero Envoi Allen at 25-1. Surely not?
Glenfarclas Chase
It’s all about Tiger Roll. I’ll just watch – Delta Work may make it a one two for Elliott.
No interest in the last two races – a handicap chase and the bumper which is usually won by Willie Mullins.
