Monday, March 15, 2021

Cheltenham Day 1: Prognostications

 

My favourite day every year. I consider it a point of honor to get the winner of the first race, the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle. My successes over the years include Shishkin and Altior in recent times and go back to the likes of Brave Inca and that magic start I got in 1996 with Indefence at 25-1 for Jenny Pitman. So great expectations usually but alas my fancy this year, Appreciate It for Mullins at 5-4, is not a betting proposition. I rarely back anything less that 5-2 unless it’s in multiples such as Yankees. The first day this year contains three races with very strong favourites all of whom are unbackable for me: Appreciate It, Shishkin (in the Arkle) and Concertista (in the Mare’s Hurdle). I think they’ll all win but I’ll be admiring not betting. The Champion Hurdle is a truly mouth-watering contest and you could make a good case for over half the field. I am going to stick with Honeysuckle who  gets the mare’s allowance and will stay more stoutly up the hill than most. Goshen could be the main danger but I’m going to look for each way value with Aspire Tower (14-1) who like Honeysuckle is trained by Henry de Bromhead – a man who knows how to prepare a horse for Cheltenham. Elsewhere on the card I’ll have a few bob on Elliot/Foster’s Milan Native (9-1) in the Ultima Chase and Joseph O’Brien’s Busselton (9-1) in the Juvenile Hurdle. The final race is a novice chase which I will studiously avoid.